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Southern California Leads the Way as Mortgage Rates Drop and Affordability Improves

The housing market has been plagued by a lack of inventory and high mortgage rates in recent years, deterring many potential homebuyers. However, experts predict that 2024 could be a turning point, with mortgage rates steadily dropping and affordability starting to improve. This article explores which metro areas are poised to experience the strongest combined increase in home sales and listing prices in the coming year.

Southern California Shines with Double-Digit Sales Growth

Five out of the top ten metro areas projected to have the highest sales growth in 2024 are located in Southern California. These markets, including Oxnard, San Diego, Riverside, Bakersfield, and Los Angeles, are expected to see an average sales growth of 13.1%. This is a stark contrast to other California areas in the top 100, which are predicted to experience a sales decline of 4.1%. The relative affordability of these Southern California markets, combined with the allure of lower prices, makes them attractive to homebuyers.

Midwestern and Northeastern Markets Offer Affordability and Stability

In contrast to the high-priced California markets, the top five metro areas in the Midwest and Northeastern states offer more affordable options for homebuyers. These markets, including Toledo, Ohio, Rochester, New York, Springfield, Massachusetts, Worcester, Massachusetts, and Grand Rapids, Michigan, have median listing prices lower than the national average. Additionally, a significant percentage of homeowners in these areas live in homes without a mortgage, providing insulation from the impact of higher interest rates. The local economies in these regions, fueled by education, healthcare, and manufacturing, are projected to have strong job growth, keeping unemployment below the national average.

California Dichotomy: Strong Sales Growth but Still Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

While Southern California markets are expected to see double-digit sales growth in 2024, they will still be below the typical sales levels seen before the pandemic. Sales in these markets are projected to be 20% to 35% lower than the average from 2017 to 2019. This trend mirrors the national figures, which are expected to be roughly 25% below pre-pandemic norms. Despite the lower sales levels, the projected improvements in these California metros are significant and indicate a rebound from the historic lows experienced in 2023.

Conclusion:

As mortgage rates continue to drop and affordability water heater service improves, the housing market in 2024 is poised for growth. Southern California leads the way with double-digit sales growth, while Midwestern and Northeastern markets offer affordability and stability. Despite the California dichotomy of strong sales growth but still below pre-pandemic levels, the overall outlook for the housing market is positive. Homebuyers can look forward to a more favorable market in the coming year, with opportunities to capitalize on lower prices and historically low mortgage rates.

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• A.O. Smith
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